According to the Red Pepper, the Museveni group knows Dr. Kizza Besigye will beat them hands down but don't want to accept that.
The office of the NRM Secretary General is sitting on a provisional report that shows Kizza Besigye, the FDC leader and IPC presidential flag bearer is comfortably leading NRM candidate Gen. Yoweri Museveni in atleast 10 districts.
“On forwarding the provisional report to top bosses in Amama Mbabazi’s office, panic gripped them. They decided to sit on it without forwarding it to either Mbabazi or Museveni, the potential chief consumers of it,” a high level source revealed to us.
It all started late last month after some security operatives who have been in the field gathering information on the performance of candidate Museveni came up with a provisional report indicating that the party flag bearer, Museveni was trailing in support in 12 districts.
This investigation is one of the many which several military and security chiefs have tasked their juniors in the past months. Among other chiefs who directed research over Museveni’s support include Gen. Aronda Nyakairima, Chief of Defence Forces, Lt. Col. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Lt. Ronnie Balya (ISO Chief) and others. However, the latest findings by the Secretary General’s office are the most shocking because they show a dark side of Museveni’s support in the districts of Kumi, Kalangala, Soroti, Hoima, Kampala, Jinja, Kasese, Pader, Gulu and Masaka.
The report indicates that in Hoima district, Col. Besigye has got more support than Museveni. This is attributed to the propaganda spread by some opposition figures that Bunyoro under Museveni would never see the oil proceeds. It will be noted that Hoima is endeared with this natural resource and plans are in high gear to have its production start soon. However, the people of the area are not sure whether they will have a lion’s share of the proceeds.
The report adds that Col. Besigye has been promising the people that Bunyoro would get a higher percentage of the proceeds from the oil, should they vote him as the next president. The security report explains that there is also sweeping propaganda in the area that much of the land where oil wells are beneath was either grabbed or bought off by senior UPDF generals or top cabinet ministers.
Lastly, Besigye’s upper hand can be traced to the area mayor Atugonza whose mobilisation skills have bolstered the IPC candidate in the area. It is over those concerns that the provisional security report wants NRM bosses to address in order to deny Besigye leverage in Hoima.
Kumi is another district which the report puts in Besigye’s hands. The mobilisation role played by some MPs in Kumi has also bolstered Besigye’s support. The report notes that Kumi district has three members of parliament, all of who belong to the FDC party. These include Amuriat Patrick, Kumi County, Epataite Francis, Ngora County and Akiror Agnes Engunywa (rumoured to be in bed with NRM). The provisional security report says that even if Museveni builds strong in roads in Kumi district it will not be easy for him to break down Besigye’s support in the area. With those findings, the report says that Besigye will again win this district.
The restoration of Obusinga won Museveni and NRM support but it boosts Besigye more. To this, the report argues that for long, it was the FDC legislators in the district who were lobbying for the return of Obusinga when the NRM MP in the district Dr. Crispus Kiyonga was against it. Among the FDC legislators who were crusaders for Obusinga are; Bihande Bwambalei, Bukonjo East, Christopher Kibanzanga, Busongora South and Kiiza Winifred, Woman MP Kasese. Kiyonga is said in report to have changed his mind much later after he realised that his campaign against this cultural institution was on the losing edge. The report further indicates that because Kibanzanga is a brother to Omusinga Charles Wesley Mumbere, tilts the trend in Besigye’s favour just because Kibanzanga falls in the FDC/IPC camp.
The report attributes Museveni’s likely poor performance in Kalangala to the beleaguered transport system that arose after government failed to overhaul MV Kalangala ferry. The ferry was the major transport system that linked the remote Kalangala Island to mainland at Nakiwoogo in Entebbe. The report says that close to the past five months, the islanders and business community have suffered in their trade because of the ship’s absence. It is now believed, the report says, that the islanders will vote Besigye whose agents have promised to repair the ferry.
The report indicates that the strength of Ssuubi pressure group has already had substantial influence in Kampala and Masaka. The group is garnering support for Besigye in Buganda, but particularly in Kampala. This will leave Besigye with an upper hand against Museveni in the city. The report further explains that members of Ssuubi are using the September 2009 stand off between central government and Mengo over Kabaka’s visit to Kayunga to strengthen Besigye’s relevance among Kampala voters. The report says that Besigye supporters in Kampala are strong that the presence of Norbert Mao, Beti Kamya, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali and Olara Otunnu, will not reduce Besigye’s support. Therefore, the report says, the presence of other candidates would enhance Besigye’s support but reduce Museveni’s hold especially among the women voters. Women are now believed to be preparing to support Kamya instead of their former darling, Museveni.
Joseph Mulwanyammuli is said to be sweeping Masaka for Besigye.
Due to the strong support that the people of Pader have for Prof. Ogenga Latigo and Aruu legislator Odonga Otto, when the two speak, the people in this district follow. The two MPs have been telling the people in Pader that Col. Besigye is the leader with a correct line for their development.The two orators have what it takes to convince their voters not to vote Museveni, the report says. Pader has three legislators all of who belong to FDC. These include Odonga Otto (Aruu), Ogenga Latigo (Agago) and Judith Franca Akello, the district Woman MP.
In Busoga sub region, it is Jinja district which the reports points at where Besigye will have a field day in this election. It says that just like Kampala, the opposition propaganda is easily spread in this district and it has affected the voters so much against NRM. The other reasons advanced for NRM’s declining support in Jinja are the high levels of unemployment which came following the collapse of its status as the industrial hub of Uganda. Then the failure by government to resolve the Kyabazinga question and the infighting among NRM bosses from Busoga sub region could pull Museveni down in Jinja.
Soroti is the other district that the security provisional report suspects to be turning into Besigye’s stronghold. It starts by revealing the leverage Besigye has over Museveni because out of the MPs from Soroti, four are from FDC and only one is NRM leaning although he stood as an independent. FDC legislators from Soroti include Alice Alaso, Elijah Okupa, Omolo Peter and Ekemu Charles Willy. John Otekat is the independent. With the opposition reciting the Mukura incident, high levels of poverty and stolen cattle are the issues that are bolstering Besigye support in Soroti, the report notes.
The report says that this will be among the most highly contested districts in the country during the presidential elections next year. The report says that four candidates will feature; Col. Besigye, Olara Otunnu, Norbert Mao and Yoweri Museveni. With Gulu king makers like Reagan Okumu still around, Besigye is tipped by the report to perform well although much of his previous support will dwindle due to the coming in of Otunnu and Mao. Museveni is seen in the report as a candidate who might not win with a big margin, but the race will be tight in this region.