I will force Museveni to hand over power, says Besigye

If the Ugandans decide, then Museveni will have no choice but to leave, Dr. Kizza Besigye reassures Ugandans while on his campaign trail, reports Daily Monitor's James Eriku, Stephen Komakech & Gerald Bareebe  

The Inter-Party Cooperation presidential candidate, Dr Kizza Besigye, has said he will use all means at his disposal to ensure that President Museveni hands over power if he defeats him in the elections.

Dr Besigye was on Tuesday responding to a question by a resident of Pader Town Council, who wanted to know what he would do if Mr Museveni refuses to cede power after losing the elections.

“There is no way he can fail to hand over power,” Dr Besigye said in response to the question, “….although military option to topple Museveni’s government is not part of our plan, he can be removed just like any other regime by the will of the people.”

Dr Besigye said he has tactically been studying Mr Museveni’s political calculations and that he will be forced to invoke peoples’ power if Mr Museveni refuses to hand over power.

Dr Besigye assured Pader residents that he has established a mechanism to ensure that his votes are protected and monitored so that they are not rigged by the NRM, a party he accused of “shamefully” rigging its own internal polls. “This time Museveni and his cliques are going,” he said.

“We have our boys who will be taking no chances during the voting and tallying exercise.”

Fighting corruption
The IPC presidential candidate said his government will rid the country of corruption and mismanagement. He accused the NRM government of betraying the ideals of restoring good governance and democracy, which he said inspired the Bush War, which brought Mr Museveni to power.

Dr Besigye, who is also the FDC leader, fought on the NRM’s side in the Bush War in 1986 and also served in the government until 1999 when he broke ranks with the NRM administration.

He said the people have the power to overthrow the government so long as they feel it does not represents their will. Addressing a rallying in Agoro Trading Centre in Lamwo District on Wednesday, Dr Besigye promised to rehabilitate Agoro Irrigation Scheme and initiate new ones to improve agricultural production in Acholi sub-region.

He said the irrigation scheme will alleviate poverty and improve food security. “This government of Museveni only planted poverty in this region by sustaining the LRA war for a long time,” he said. Dr Besigye promised to increase funding to the agricultural sector.

Polls: Besigye hits back at Museveni

Between the two strong bulls in the prevailing presidential campaigns, neither is intimidated by the other, reports Daily Monitor's Steven Ariong & Mercy Nalugo

The Inter-Party Cooperation presidential flag bearer, Dr Kizza Besigye, yesterday said he will not be intimidated by President Museveni.

Dr Besigye’s rebuttal follows the President’s warning on Tuesday that Dr Besigye, a retired army Colonel, would be jailed if he dared announce his own version of the 2011 election results.

“Whether President Museveni wants or not, I will make sure we announce our own result before the Electoral Commission announces its final results,” he said, “I will not tolerate this business of intimidating me.”

Dr Besigye, who was Mr Museveni’s former personal physician during the 1981-6 NRA bush war, re-affirmed his stand on declaring election results during a rally at Morulem Trading Centre in the new Abim District, Karamoja region.

He said his campaign is more organised and prepared this time, unlike in 2005/6 when he had to juggle between courts and campaigns, and “we are determined to ensure our vote is not stolen again”. At another rally in Abim Town Council, Dr Besigye said: ”Museveni has been good at stealing my votes”.

“In 2006, he stole my votes when I was in Luzira Prison but this time I will not allow that. I am much more prepared to fight malpractices than in 2006.”

In 2006, Dr Besigye was detained and charged with treason and rape upon returning to the country from exile in October 2005. He only joined the presidential race after being nominated in jail.

The High Court would later throw out the rape charge which it denounced as a scurrilous attempt to slur the reputation of an honourable man who had chosen to run for the highest office in the land.

Five years later, the Constitutional Court also ruled in the colonel’s favour on the treason allegations, which he had always insisted were politically-motivated.

President Museveni told a news conference in Jinja on Tuesday that if Dr Besigye announced his own results, he would be arrested. The contention about the results appears to have shaken the campaigns with Dr Besigye, who is running against President Museveni for the third consecutive time, maintaining that he will not be cheated again.

The opposition has accused the current Electoral Commission of being partisan, saying they cannot deliver free and fair elections. The Supreme Court also found in its ruling on Dr Besigye’s 2006 petition against Mr Museveni’s re-election that the EC incompetently presided over that poll.

Yesterday, the Forum for Democratic Change, which Dr Besigye leads, remained defiant. They told journalists in Kampala that Mr Museveni is free to petition the EC.

Be educated
Campaign spokesperson Margaret Wokuri said: “I need to be educated under what law a candidate can really arrest another. But if President Museveni is aggrieved by our plan, let him petition the electoral body.”

She said the results shall be relayed as they come in. FDC vice president (eastern region), Ms Salaamu Musumba, told Daily Monitor that the President is being irrational.

“What is the substance and content of his anger? His anger is fear but for us we have committed ourselves to democracy and constitutional rule even under the (current)apartheid-like rule. The law is very clear because we have to have two polling agents at each station to deliver the results to us which we are to tally and announce,” she said.

Ms Musumba added that they have set up one with a back-up in Kenya and the UK and have acquired software which will automate the tallying.

BARE KNUCKLES: Museveni, Besigye on salaries for teachers

In this Sunday Monitor article, Fredrick M. Masiga analyzes what it means when opposition leading candidate, Dr. Kizza Besigye comes up with ideas and promises that evoke the incumbent to respond

This week, talk on the presidential campaign trail got closer to things that touch the hearts of most ordinary Ugandans. When presidential candidate Kizza Besigye says he will increase teachers’ salaries by 100 per cent when elected and then President Museveni retorts that teachers’ pay raise is not a priority, it creates a good feeling of hope that finally some fire is being stoked up on matters that affect those who build this nation at the grassroots. Ideally, it also means that those whose lives are being talked about will decide to vote for a candidate on the basis of how he or she vouches in their interests.
 

The variance of policy from the two vote seekers is interesting. The same could also be asked of the fate of nurses, the Police and Prison officers who form the bulk of civil servants in Uganda.

More than a week ago, Besigye said teachers deserve a pay raise of up to Shs400,000 per month from Shs200,000 they earn today. He said the resources are bountiful and should be released to the ‘proletariats’. Indeed both men agree that there is money – and a lot of it around - but differ on whether it is time for teachers to be invited to the dining table. Besigye also said school children under the Universal Primary Education will get free lunch under his leadership.

Over the years, teachers, nurses, the army and police officers have been victims of ridiculously low wage increments. Their lot has, for as long as I can remember, lived the same old lifestyle. Most of these teachers, for example, dress almost like the village pupils they teach, live in congested quarters that are deplorable and their off-springs are more likely than not to follow in the footsteps of their parents’ careers. Those who have fared better than the rest have moonlighted in several schools or established side enterprises to generate extra income. I know of a police officer whose main occupation is money lending rather than policing.

For long, Ugandans have been fed on political promises made during times like these by individuals vying for political positions. What most of us take for granted though is that these promises are made on the premise that voters – we Ugandans - will pay taxes that will then be used to fulfil the same promises. That is why Museveni’s response to Besigye’s call should be of interest to those who will be voting next February.

Museveni reportedly said “Besigye claims he is going to pay teachers…because he knows that there is money. But this is my money. I am the one who has worked for it, not Besigye”.

These words must be understood in their proper context. The last two decades of Museveni’s reign have been the most successful for the country in terms of economic recovery and political stability. The level of economic investment has shifted scores higher than ever before and become more inclusive with more Ugandans engaged in business. The private sector has blossomed on the back of some ground-breaking international industry entrants into the economy providing jobs and revenue to government. In short, we have become more modernised.

That said, however, it doesn’t give Museveni a right to claim ownership of the resources created during his regime or even deny other leaders the right to use the same resources to provide a service to Ugandans. Leaders who personalise national wealth have a tendency to treat other citizens as beggars which also culminates into a false belief that their leadership is a favour and a sacrifice to the country. Such leaders are unlikely to relinquish State power in a clean democratic process.

Look at Daniel arap Moi, he became a cult personality in Kenya. His praises were sung in the same breath as the Lord’s Prayer Our Father, who art in Heaven…” But after two decades in power, even he took note of a rising wave of national disaffection towards him and grudgingly bent over backwards to give way to others.

Kibaki and his government are adding on Moi’s gains and using the same resources to run the country. So far, all is well for them: Kenyans still pay taxes, foreign investors still flock into the country, and tourists keep knocking at tourist sites in Kenya with no bother of who the president is.

Museveni doesn’t need such a wave of discontent to dislodge him, the Constitution guarantees his desire for another term and if he gets it, it will come with the right to spend our money on our behalf for national interests. But in the unlikely event that that mandate is given, say to Mr Samuel Lubega, President Museveni will have no reason to resist a popular democratic decision to hand over to Lubega to whom the right to spend the same money will have been passed to.

It makes sense that Prof. Gilbert Bukenya, as he said in his article in the New Vision on Thursday, will vote for Museveni because according to him, only Museveni has a report card worth considering. Of course Bukenya knows that Museveni has been on the national stage for 24 years and together, they have sat at the dining table which makes it pointless for the VP to try and bite the hand that feeds him.

So the point shouldn’t be lost that political campaigns in Uganda have become so commercialised in the ‘spirit of privatisation’ that for the teacher and the school pupil, the salary and the lunch are really the price that politicians have to pay for their vote. It is pathetic but the reality of life has been reduced to the belief that “what you have swallowed is what is rightly yours”.

These same teacher and pupil have heard promises made to them before most of which have been fulfilled during the next round of presidential campaigns. Even though some teachers are unhappy with Museveni’s proposition – that they have had enough for now - it makes little difference. These kinds of teachers and others need to understand that their vote must count for a substantial interest that will improve their welfare in the long run and not for piece meal campaign promises.

Mr Masiga is the managing editor - Weekend editions of the Monitor Publications Ltd.
fmasiga@ug.nationmedia.com

Besigye, Museveni fight over pledges

The blame game is on between the giant bulls. But who's copying the other, writes Michael Mubangizi in today's Observer

The two leading candidates in the race for State House are fighting over campaign promises. Coalition candidate Kizza Besigye has promised to provide free lunch for primary school children, and cut taxes, but the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, has now made it a point to caution that Besigye’s promises are unrealistic.


Museveni told his supporters at Namayingo Primary School in Bukooli South last week that Besigye was duping people into believing that he could develop their communities and deliver services at the same time.
Citing Besigye’s other promises - to raise salaries of public servants, tarmac all roads and overhaul the health sector, while reducing taxes, Museveni told his audience that this was unachievable at once.

“That is not how to manage government. Where will he get all the money to do those things at a go? We have planned and we have been achieving them one at a time,” the President said.

But Besigye argues that the problem is not money; rather, how the little available is utilised. However, of all the promises, free lunch to primary school children appears to have ruffled NRM the most. This is because the promise, while ambitious, is very tempting to the millions of parents whose children currently stay at school on empty stomachs.

The NRM’s argument is that the government is paying the fees and, therefore, the parents should shoulder the lesser burden of feeding.

But Besigye’s promise has sent the party into a rethink of their position. Even as Museveni continues to tell his supporters that Besigye can’t pull it off, it was recently revealed that the ministry of Education and Sports has prepared a cabinet memo proposing different ways through which lunch can be provided.

In case government fails to meet the cost of feeding the children, the ministry is proposing that classes end at 1:50pm so that children can have lunch at home. Another option is for parents to pack lunch for their children, which has worked for some but not for others.

During a campaign in Namutumba recently, President Museveni put his position into perspective: “We have offered to teach your children free of charge up to advanced level starting next year, however many they will be. It will not be fair for anyone to say we feed their children. There are roads, schools, hospitals, electricity, water and other sorts of social services to provide. That is where this money will go, not feeding school children.”

Whereas the President sounds persuasive, it is debatable whether his supporters - the peasants who are used to free things - will buy into his argument and dismiss Besigye’s free lunch.

With the elections around the corner, and the opposition digging in, it remains to be seen how long President Museveni can maintain his principled position.

In the past, Museveni has reacted to some of the opposition’s populist promises by delivering on them. In 2001, Besigye promised to abolish graduated tax. Museveni reacted by doing exactly that.

Besigye also promised to double the number of government sponsored students at public universities from the then 2,000, but Museveni got it done. Besigye promised to restore the Kasese cultural institution, Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu, and got rewarded with a victory over Museveni in the 2006 elections.

The NRM, which had initially opposed the restoration, was forced to change its mind after the voters’ statement, and now the Rwenzururu Kingdom is back to life.

The Ntungamo-Rukungiri road was nicknamed ‘Besigye road’ because he promised to tarmac it during the 2001 election campaigns, forcing the government to take it up.

The free lunch proposal strikes a chord with Museveni’s core supporters - the peasants and rural poor - who are the major beneficiaries of the UPE programme. Unlike federalism, whose support hardly goes beyond one region, free lunch for school children would be popular across the country.

Political watchers say that with the ministry of Education and Sports fronting proposals, the government might soon announce a u-turn on the issue, thus pulling a rag from under Besigye’s feet.

Dr. Frederick Mutebi Golooba of Makerere University agrees that Besigye’s promise of free lunch is popular.
He says the President might end up offering free meals too.

“If the parents continue to support Besigye and the President realises that it is likely to win him support, I will be surprised if he doesn’t change his position,” Golooba told The Observer by telephone.

However, Fagil Mandy, an education consultant and former commissioner in the ministry of Education, doesn’t agree. He says there are other more pressing issues that have to be addressed in the education sector, other than offering free meals.

Mandy cites the strengthening of school management committees, district educational institutions, retraining of teachers and stemming teacher absenteeism. He adds that even before UPE (when the quality of education was said to be good), schools weren’t providing lunch.

According to Mandy, there are other reasons to blame for the high school dropout rates other than lack of meals for learners.

Besigye’s other promise is reducing taxes, which has prompted some to ask from where he will get the money to implement his generous proposals. He has, however, been talking of fighting corruption and reducing on the cost of public administration.

Yet free lunch is not the only bone of contention between these two. They have accused each other of manifesto copying.

President Museveni’s younger brother, Gen Salim Saleh, recently accused Besigye of riding on the NRM promise of restoring cooperatives which he says government has already restored.

Besigye’s promise of doubling primary school teachers’ salaries to Shs 400,000 was also not well received by NRM. Earlier on, Trade and Tourism minister, Maj Gen Kahinda Otafiire, had described the promise as unrealistic.

Besigye Leads M7 In 10 Districts

According to the Red Pepper, the Museveni group knows Dr. Kizza Besigye will beat them hands down but don't want to accept that.

The office of the NRM Secretary General is sitting on a provisional report that shows Kizza Besigye, the FDC leader and IPC presidential flag bearer is comfortably leading NRM candidate Gen. Yoweri Museveni in atleast 10 districts. 

“On forwarding the provisional report to top bosses in Amama Mbabazi’s office, panic gripped them. They decided to sit on it without forwarding it to either Mbabazi or Museveni, the potential chief consumers of it,” a high level source revealed to us. 

It all started late last month after some security operatives who have been in the field gathering information on the performance of candidate Museveni came up with a provisional report indicating that the party flag bearer, Museveni was trailing in support in 12 districts.  

This investigation is one of the many which several military and security chiefs have tasked their juniors in the past months. Among other chiefs who directed research over Museveni’s support include Gen. Aronda Nyakairima, Chief of Defence Forces, Lt. Col. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Lt. Ronnie Balya (ISO Chief) and others. However, the latest findings by the Secretary General’s office are the most shocking because they show a dark side of Museveni’s support in the districts of Kumi, Kalangala, Soroti, Hoima, Kampala, Jinja, Kasese, Pader, Gulu and Masaka.

HOIMA

The report indicates that in Hoima district, Col. Besigye has got more support than Museveni. This is attributed to the propaganda spread by some opposition figures that Bunyoro under Museveni would never see the oil proceeds. It will be noted that Hoima is endeared with this natural resource and plans are in high gear to have its production start soon. However, the people of the area are not sure whether they will have a lion’s share of the proceeds. 

The report adds that Col. Besigye has been promising the people that Bunyoro would get a higher percentage of the proceeds from the oil, should they vote him as the next president. The security report explains that there is also sweeping propaganda in the area that much of the land where oil wells are beneath was either grabbed or bought off by senior UPDF generals or top cabinet ministers. 

Lastly, Besigye’s upper hand can be traced to the area mayor Atugonza whose mobilisation skills have bolstered the IPC candidate in the area. It is over those concerns that the provisional security report wants NRM bosses to address in order to deny Besigye leverage in Hoima.

KUMI

Kumi is another district which the report puts in Besigye’s hands. The mobilisation role played by some MPs in Kumi has also bolstered Besigye’s support. The report notes that Kumi district has three members of parliament, all of who belong to the FDC party. These include Amuriat Patrick, Kumi County, Epataite Francis, Ngora County and Akiror Agnes Engunywa (rumoured to be in bed with NRM). The provisional security report says that even if Museveni builds strong in roads in Kumi district it will not be easy for him to break down Besigye’s support in the area. With those findings, the report says that Besigye will again win this district.

KASESE

The restoration of Obusinga won Museveni and NRM support but it boosts Besigye more. To this, the report argues that for long, it was the FDC legislators in the district who were lobbying for the return of Obusinga when the NRM MP in the district Dr. Crispus Kiyonga was against it. Among the FDC legislators who were crusaders for Obusinga are; Bihande Bwambalei, Bukonjo East, Christopher Kibanzanga, Busongora South and Kiiza Winifred, Woman MP Kasese. Kiyonga is said in report to have changed his mind much later after he realised that his campaign against this cultural institution was on the losing edge. The report further indicates that because Kibanzanga is a brother to Omusinga Charles Wesley Mumbere, tilts the trend in Besigye’s favour just because Kibanzanga falls in the FDC/IPC camp.

KALANGALA

The report attributes Museveni’s likely poor performance in Kalangala to the beleaguered transport system that arose after government failed to overhaul MV Kalangala ferry. The ferry was the major transport system that linked the remote Kalangala Island to mainland at Nakiwoogo in Entebbe. The report says that close to the past five months, the islanders and business community have suffered in their trade because of the ship’s absence. It is now believed, the report says, that the islanders will vote Besigye whose agents have promised to repair the ferry.

KAMPALA

The report indicates that the strength of Ssuubi pressure group has already had substantial influence in Kampala and Masaka. The group is garnering support for Besigye in Buganda, but particularly in Kampala. This will leave Besigye with an upper hand against Museveni in the city. The report further explains that members of Ssuubi are using the September 2009 stand off between central government and Mengo over Kabaka’s visit to Kayunga to strengthen Besigye’s relevance among Kampala voters. The report says that Besigye supporters in Kampala are strong that the presence of Norbert Mao, Beti Kamya, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali and Olara Otunnu, will not reduce Besigye’s support. Therefore, the report says, the presence of other candidates would enhance Besigye’s support but reduce Museveni’s hold especially among the women voters. Women are now believed to be preparing to support Kamya instead of their former darling, Museveni.

MASAKA

Joseph Mulwanyammuli is said to be sweeping Masaka for Besigye.

PADER

Due to the strong support that the people of Pader have for Prof. Ogenga Latigo and Aruu legislator Odonga Otto, when the two speak, the people in this district follow. The two MPs have been telling the people in Pader that Col. Besigye is the leader with a correct line for their development.The two orators have what it takes to convince their voters not to vote Museveni, the report says. Pader has three legislators all of who belong to FDC. These include Odonga Otto (Aruu), Ogenga Latigo (Agago) and Judith Franca Akello, the district Woman MP.

JINJA

In Busoga sub region, it is Jinja district which the reports points at where Besigye will have a field day in this election. It says that just like Kampala, the opposition propaganda is easily spread in this district and it has affected the voters so much against NRM. The other reasons advanced for NRM’s declining support in Jinja are the high levels of unemployment which came following the collapse of its status as the industrial hub of Uganda. Then the failure by government to resolve the Kyabazinga question and the infighting among NRM bosses from Busoga sub region could pull Museveni down in Jinja.

SOROTI

Soroti is the other district that the security provisional report suspects to be turning into Besigye’s stronghold. It starts by revealing the leverage Besigye has over Museveni because out of the MPs from Soroti, four are from FDC and only one is NRM leaning although he stood as an independent. FDC legislators from Soroti include Alice Alaso, Elijah Okupa, Omolo Peter and Ekemu Charles Willy. John Otekat is the independent. With the opposition reciting the Mukura incident, high levels of poverty and stolen cattle are the issues that are bolstering Besigye support in Soroti, the report notes.

GULU

The report says that this will be among the most highly contested districts in the country during the presidential elections next year. The report says that four candidates will feature; Col. Besigye, Olara Otunnu, Norbert Mao and Yoweri Museveni. With Gulu king makers like Reagan Okumu still around, Besigye is tipped by the report to perform well although much of his previous support will dwindle due to the coming in of Otunnu and Mao. Museveni is seen in the report as a candidate who might not win with a big margin, but the race will be tight in this region.

Besigye: I’m a nightmare to Museveni

Dr. Kizza Besigye is one name the sound of which brings shivers down president Museveni's spine, reports Observer's Edris Kiggundu 


‘If I hadn’t been his doctor, he probably wouldn’t be alive today to disturb you’
 
Budaka– The IPC flag bearer, Dr Kizza Besigye, said last week that his persistent opposition to some of the governing NRM’s policies has given President Museveni sleepless nights.

“I have been told that sometimes he [Museveni] wakes up in the middle of the night shouting my name,” Besigye said at a rally in Kibuku Town Council last Thursday, as the crowd cheered.

Besigye said he will not relent in his quest for change even if it means losing his life in the process. He urged the people not to give in to fear either.

“Everywhere you must fight for your freedom. If you fear death or imprisonment, then you will not get your rights,” Besigye said.

He said leaders are people’s workers, not bosses, because they (leaders) are sustained by taxpayers.
“Today I am here, whether Museveni likes it or not. I am the one who pays him,” Besigye said.

Speaking at length about his past association with Museveni, the IPC candidate said had it not been partly due to the medical services he rendered the president, “he might not have lived to disturb you today”.

He said he abandoned Museveni the moment he veered off the path of the ideals which took them to the bush in 1981. Besigye also spoke about reports in 2005 that he was to be arrested upon returning from exile in South Africa.

“Someone in government smuggled to me a letter written by President Museveni to cabinet, saying that if Besigye returns to the country he should be arrested. I read it, laughed and threw it away,” he said.

It was the first time during the campaigns that Besigye had devoted considerable time attacking Museveni and his government. Besigye’s tough rhetoric came amid reports that FDC supporters were being intimidated by security personnel and local NRM leaders.

Indeed as his convoy entered town, there were some soldiers from the Special Forces Group (SFG) stationed at Kibuku Secondary School.

The soldiers are said to have camped here days before Museveni campaigned in the area on Monday, December 6, 2010, and had not left since. In fact, some people reportedly feared to go to the IPC rally, uncertain of what could happen.

Besigye, on his part, urged the soldiers not to intimidate the people, saying they would be made to account once the IPC came to power.

There were also reports in Kibuku that the area MP, Saleh Kamba, had mobilized a “Kiboko Squad” to beat up whoever did not support the NRM. Kamba, a prominent member of Major Kakooza Mutale’s notorious Kalangala Action Plan, refuted the reports.

He told The Observer that the reports were being propagated by his rival, Jennifer Namuyangu, the minister of state for Water, whom he alleged had allied with FDC to work for the downfall of the NRM in the district.
But soon after Besigye left Kibuku town, Kamba reportedly pulled down his banner, saying the district belongs to the NRM. On Friday, December 10, FDC officials led by Dr Patrick Wakida and Geoffrey Ekanya, the Tororo County MP, protested against the act and Police in Kibuku said they would investigate the incident.

Wooing youth

In Budaka, the IPC candidate reached out to the youth, imploring them to vote for change because the current government had neglected them.

Addressing hundreds who turned up for a youth conference at St Anthony Catholic Church in Budaka, Besigye said the country was looking up to the young generation to get it out of the confusion and give it a new direction.

“A new beginning will not come on its own. You must invest in your future very actively, you must make every government accountable to you,” Besigye told the cheering youth.

He cautioned them against falling for NRM’s “propaganda” that it will improve their lives, saying there is high level unemployment because government has refused to invest in projects that create jobs.

He told the youth to have hope that things will change for the better once he comes to power.
Generally, Besigye’s rallies in Budaka, Kibuku and Pallisa were well attended. In places like Kadama, Tirinyi and Kagumu, all in Kibuku district, many people were excited to see the FDC leader.

In the 2006 elections, Museveni overwhelmingly defeated Besigye here, but judging from the reception he got this time, his team expects to perform better next year.

Wherever he went in this sub-region, the major problems affecting the people were said to be poor roads, poverty and lack of market for their produce. Campaigning in Pallisa on Saturday, before taking a day off to rest on Sunday, Besigye promised massive political and economic changes if elected.

Bugisu next

For the next four days, starting today (Monday,) Besigye begins his Bugisu sub-region campaign. He is expected to start with a series of public rallies in Mbale district, where he camped for five days last week.
There is already excitement and anticipation in the municipality, which is represented in Parliament by FDC’s Jack Wamai.

Mbale municipality is the economic heartbeat of the region. The last time Besigye campaigned here in 2006, he got a resounding welcome. But the FDC will have to work extra hard to hold onto the two seats the party has in this sub-region (Nandala Mafabi and Jack Wamai) as well as win more.

Besigye will also venture into the other largely pro-NRM districts in the region - Sironko, Bududa, Bulambuli and Manafwa - later in the week, where he hopes to create a good impression.

Museveni or Besigye: Who can be trusted to stop corruption

Like the title suggests, Observer's Michael Mubangizi analyzes who between the giants has what it takes to arrest the cancer of corruption that's bedeviling our country.

Fighting corruption is a major campaign issue this election year, and both the ruling party and opposition are playing up their capacity to run a clean government.

Opposition leaders have for long hammered away at NRM’s poor record on fighting corruption and many voters appear to have paid attention this time round.

But the NRM maintains that it is in a better position to fight corruption than any other political party. The ruling party points at having over the years ended the more ‘overt’ forms of corruption such as extortion at road blocks, looting of personal property by armed security personnel, supply of ‘air’, and poaching in national parks.

The NRM candidate, Yoweri Museveni, is promising to deliver the last blow on corruption once reelected. Being incumbent comes with many privileges for Museveni, but it also has its baggage - his achievements, just as his failures, are there for all voters to see and decide.

Museveni promises in his 2011- 2016 reelection manifesto that the NRM will in the next five years “vigorously implement its zero-tolerance policy on corruption.”

He also promises to strengthen the investigative and prosecution capacity of the country’s anti-corruption agencies to handle new and more sophisticated forms of corruption such as cybercrime, as well as mobilise the public to participate in the fight against corruption using laws like the Whistleblowers Act and Access to Information Act.

Museveni also promises to support anti-corruption agencies to carry out value-for-money audits and to enact a law that allows individuals to initiate civil suits to recover stolen money for and on behalf of the government. Such people would get some monetary compensation after successful suits.

The President also promises to constitute a committee to investigate political leaders and senior public officers named in corruption scandals. And if the committee prefers further investigations by institutions like the IGG, then he would grant their request and ask the person(s) under investigation to step aside until they are cleared.
But not everyone is blown away by these promises. Critics argue that Museveni doesn’t need a law to tell officials named in corruption cases to step aside pending an investigation. Others see the promise of a law allowing private individuals to sue and recover stolen money as an admission that the state has failed to fight graft.

Cissy Kagaba, executive director of the Anti-Corruption Coalition of Uganda, says President Museveni and NRM can no longer be trusted to fight corruption which was part of the initial 10-point programme.

“Their (NRM) word has been tested and there are many precedents to show that it has failed,” she said.
She points at the findings of commissions of inquiry and corruption indexes that show unabated corruption. The 2010 East African Bribery Index report by Transparency International released recently ranked Uganda as the second most corrupt country in the East African Community after Burundi. Uganda was said to be followed by Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda, in that order.

A recent Transparency International report ranking the world’s most corrupt countries shows that Uganda’s corruption rating improved from 130th to 127th among 178 countries sampled. This ‘improvement’ could, however, be because of the worsening corruption in other countries rather than improvements in Uganda.
According to a 2005 World Bank report, Uganda loses about $300m (Shs 510b) annually through corruption and procurement malpractices.

The 2009 Global Barometer report also ranked Uganda among countries most affected by petty bribery. Others listed were Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Cameroon, Iraq, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

He may be well intentioned, but Kagaba says President Museveni’s proposal to create a new committee to investigate political leaders and senior public officials named in graft shows that he has lost faith in the existing institutions.

“Why form another institution when there are existing ones? We don’t need more laws (or institutions), we need implementation,” she said, describing the proposal as a campaign gimmick.

“They have nothing more useful to promise.”

She doesn’t fault only NRM for the escalating corruption levels but institutions like the church too. Instead of rebuking politicians named in corruption scandals, she says, church leaders, “idolize, give them front seats and allow them to address their congregations.”

Can opposition be trusted?

But does NRM’s failure to fight graft mean that the opposition can be trusted when it says it will fight corruption? This depends on who you talk to.

“I can’t say we can trust them, but let us give them an opportunity. We can’t judge them before they are in power,” says Kagaba.

To her, some opposition politicians could well be clean. She points out, for instance, that if people like Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, Dr Kizza Besigye and former Army Commander, Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, had been corrupt while in government, the state would long have exposed their dealings to undermine them politically.

While he is not sure that the opposition can effectively end graft, Godber Tumushabe, the executive director of ACODE Uganda, says any change that removes President Museveni from power would herald hope in the fight against the vice.

Tumushabe notes that NRM can no-longer fight corruption because it is part of the regime’s survival and longevity strategy.

“It cannot fight corruption unless it abandons its strategy to stay in power,” he argues.

Tumushabe explains that during the NRM’s 24 years in charge, thieving channels have been deeply entrenched and can only be dismantled through a regime change.

Yet for Dr Josephine Ahikire, a senior lecturer in Makerere University’s Department of Women and Gender Studies and board member of the National NGO Forum, fighting corruption has nothing to do with regime change. She says it simply requires strong institutions.

“Most people trust individuals, me I don’t trust anybody,” she says.

While she admits NRM has failed to empower institutional frameworks to fight corruption, she says neither has the opposition demonstrated that ability.

With no hope in both the opposition and NRM, her hope is in “an active citizenry who are ready to demand accountability.”

She admits that the NGO world has not done enough to mobilize citizens for the anti-graft effort. She, however, attributes this to the legal framework regulating NGOs, which makes it hard for them to mobilise the populace without appearing to be partisan.

Although few people are willing to give credit to NRM’s fight against graft, its manifesto highlights the party’s achievements since 1986. It cites elimination of “the more overt forms of corruption and criminality; i.e. air supply, extortion on road blocks, etc” and the establishment of anti-corruption agencies like IGG, the Auditor General, DPP and parliament oversight committees like PAC.

Others include the strengthening of the legal framework for fighting corruption through enacting laws like the Leadership Code Act 2002, the Inspectorate of Government Act 2002, Access to Information Act 2005, the Anti-Corruption Act 2009, and the Whistleblowers Protection Act 2010.

The manifesto also cites Uganda’s ratification of the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC) and the African Union Convention for Preventing and Combating Corruption.

However, political watchers say much as these make a good anti-graft framework, it has largely remained on paper. The President has also been accused of weakening the very laws championed by his government.

For instance, in 2003 he swore an affidavit in support of his advisor on Political Affairs, Maj Kakooza Mutale, who was challenging provisions of the Leadership Code.

The NRM indeed admits to challenges in fighting corruption, citing weaknesses in the investigation and prosecution capacity.

Same old promises

Yet a keen look at the Museveni manifesto shows his promises are not much different from those he made in previous elections.

In the 2006 NRM election manifesto, President Museveni again praised his government for having eliminated “overt” forms of corruption like extortion at road blocks, looting of personal property by army personnel and armed security personnel, open bribery, supply of air, embezzlement, over invoicing and poaching in national parks.

He promised a zero tolerance policy and intensification of legal and structural approaches in fighting graft. Others were a policy of cadre identification, cadre development and cadre placement on account of their education and integrity.

Earlier in 1996, Museveni had again listed ending extra-judicial killings, magendo business (hoarding) and smuggling as some of his achievements in fighting corruption. He then promised to fight the remaining forms of corruption through investigation, prosecution, adjudication and accounting officers and administrators ensuring that the money is not stolen.

Critics, therefore, find Museveni’s delivery on his promises wanting. Some point out that the few times he has attempted to move on corruption, he has targeted “small fish”.

The President often attacks health workers who steal drugs from health centres, primary school teachers, sub-county NAADS officials, ignoring the “big fish” like his ministers implicated in the misuse of CHOGM funds, Temangalo and GAVI scandals. To the contrary, the President has often appeared to be protecting them.

Justice John Bosco Katutsi of the Anti-Corruption Court is on record for saying he’s tired of trying only small fish.

His court recently convicted Eng. Samson Bagonza, the former chief engineer in the ministry of Works and Transport, making him the first government official to be tried for CHOGM related impropriety.

Earlier, Justice Katutsi convicted the former Director of Economic Monitoring in the President’s Office, Teddy Ssezi Cheeye, who is serving a 10-year jail term for misusing the Global Funds. Others convicted by the court in the recent past are Fred Kavuma. Annaliza Mondon and Elizabeth Ngororano are out on bail pending their trial.

These court decisions have done nothing to allay the criticism that “small fish” are being targeted while more prominent transgressors enjoy impunity.

FDC petitions police over conduct of rival supporters

Daily Monitor's Thembo Kahungu Misairi and  Felix Basiime report that FDC supporters have petitioned the police over the unfair treatment of Dr. Kizza Besigye at campaign rallies

Forum for Democratic Change members in Kasese District have petitioned the police protesting against the conduct of some NRM supporters who allegedly disrupted campaign rallies for Inter-party Cooperation presidential candidate Kizza Besigye while in the district last week.

FDC’s Christopher Kibanzanga alleged last week that NRM supporters disrupted rallies at Mubuku Trading Centre and in Karusandara Sub-county.

Mr Kibanzanga said they have asked the police to investigate the matter. He said the suspects should be treated individually.

Three people have so far recorded statements at the police, he added.

Woman MP Winfred Kiiza (FDC) asked FDC supporters in the district to be law-abiding during the campaign period.

Why Besigye Will Make M7 Sweat

An unnamed Red Pepper reporter gives his reasons as why Dr. Kizza Besigye will give Museveni a run for his money!

As the presidential elections gain momentum, all candidates are using every trick in the book to attract the attention of potential voters. When Museveni decided to recite an old Runyankole folk tale, no one knew that it would turn out to be a big hit during his campaign rallies. Later on, all other candidates have adopted the art of dancing their legs lame as if dancing is part and parcel of what affects Uganda. In today’s briefing, intelligence presents the current miscalculations that may cost Museveni and the NRM the required percentage in the forthcoming polls.

THE NORTHERN VOTE STRUGGLE:
If one was to judge from the crowds that the incumbent has been pulling in Lira, Gulu and Kitgum districts, then it would be automatic that the President this time will win by the same margin he won in 1996 in the whole country. In the past elections when Joseph Kony was still active in northern Uganda, very few people, if any, would identify with Museveni and his government at a local level. Those who supported him were a few families who lived in Kampala and would only go back to northern Uganda and stay in hotels, but wouldn’t dare visit their homes in the villages. In addition, all their relatives were staying in Internally Displaced Peoples’ Camps (IDPs). So, for the last 25 years, the NRM never gained any political ground in northern Uganda.

With Kony defeated, Museveni and the NRM think now is the time to make inroads into the north and win the vote there which had been denied by the long LRA war. But to achieve this Museveni needs five more years in power, not just a few months of presidential campaigning. He has pulled the crowds, but some have never had a chance of seeing the President live because of the insecurity that has characterised the area. In addition, the majority of incumbent MPs from Lango and Acholi sub-regions are FDC and UPC. So the NRM has not yet got strong structures at the grassroots to help the party defeat these incumbents politically. Therefore, the new converts to Museveni’s camp will have an uphill task to consolidate short-term NRM support when Museveni leaves the region for other areas on his campaign trail. It should also be remembered that Dr. Kizza Besigye had been getting 80 per cent support from northern Uganda even when there was war. Now that people are settled, what if the percentage goes higher? Despite the presence of two candidates from northern Uganda in the race (Mao and Otunnu), it is only FDC which still has the majority of MPs on the ground in these two regions and, if they work hard, Besigye’s support may still remain high compared to other candidates’. Therefore Museveni’s taskforce has to work hard to convert the new found love in northern Uganda into actual votes; otherwise, if Museveni leaves the north, the crowds will wait for Besigye, Mao, Otunnu and others.

THE IPC FACTOR
When DP’s Nobert Mao and UPC’s Olara Otunnu refused to join the Besigye- initiated IPC, many NRM diehards celebrated on the grounds that Besigye was politically finished. But this was a total miscalculation because the duo’s refusal to join Besigye has helped the opposition open many fronts against Museveni during the presidential campaigns.

First, the electorate has been perceiving Dr. Besigye as someone driven by personal anger against Museveni, but, as Mao attacks Museveni from the East, Otunnu is busy doing the same in Central; Betty Kamya is doing so on the northern front as Bidandi Ssali does the damage on the south-western. But if all these candidates had chosen just one amongst themselves, the Electoral Commission would have given them one campaign programme and time wouldn’t have been on their side to traverse the country for votes. This division of labour has boosted Besigye because people have come to realise that he is not alone in the struggle. So after listening to many voices calling for change, the electorate might choose the best alternative among the many options presented, and this is where Besigye will sweep up the undecided voters at the last hour.

Second, although the opposition failed to front a joint candidate, an alliance is more probable between Besigye, Mao and Otunnu if Museveni fails to get the required 51 per cent and there is a re-run. In the middle of all this, the issue of incumbency is working against Museveni’s camp. Much as he is traversing the countryside for votes, his main taskforce is just relaxing in Kampala hotels and all they do is wait around for television newscasts to see how their candidate is doing on the ground. This arrogance of incumbency will cost Museveni more votes if the taskforce doesn’t get on the ground to consolidate his supporters. The false confidence that Museveni has already won will backfire when those behind him wake up to realise that the number of votes they expected is not what they had hoped.

BUGANDA’S VOTE: Unlike in past elections, there is an anticipation of a protest vote against Museveni from Buganda because of the current disagreement between Mengo and the central government. Intelligence can confirm this by the fact that there was high voter registration turn-out in all districts of Buganda for next year’s elections. But despite this turn-up, there hasn’t been much momentum at rallies, meaning people are just waiting for the voting day to express their feelings. This protest voter strategy is aimed at denying Museveni the required percentage to win the election, so that he must negotiate for Buganda’s vote in case there is need for a re-run. The only miscalculation Museveni made on the Buganda region vote was the re-opening of CBS because it played very well into the hands of his archrival Dr. Besigye. Besigye had already promised that he would re-open the station unconditionally if Buganda elected him to power. His pledge had not been taken seriously because many peasants in Buganda region still hope Museveni and the Kabaka will come to terms - no matter how long it takes.

But the re-opening of the radio station has made Besigye more of a hero in Buganda. Political analysts had predicted that, whether or not CBS was re-opened, Museveni would still win another term in office. Intelligence can reveal that even the National Security Council had wanted the president to re-open the station after the elections. It is believed that a group of pro-Besigye Mengo officials infiltrated the circles of former PPS Amelia Kyambadde because she was a new entrant to politics as aspiring MP for Mawokota constituency. They put her under pressure that if she wanted to become an MP, then she should convince her former boss (Museveni) to re-open CBS. Much as the President endeavoured to avoid questions regarding the re-opening of the station publicly during his tour of Buganda on the Prosperity for All programme, Amelia and other NRM MPs from Buganda lobbied until the station was hesitantly re-opened. Ironically, it is the same station that the opposition is going to use to de-campaign all incumbent NRM MPs in the region. Much as NRM mobilisers from Buganda region have tried to praise Museveni for the re-opening of CBS radio, the population has not responded in the same way. This was evident during the Kabaka’s tour of Kampala markets where his subjects were saying “tukyabanja” meaning that, despite the re-opening of CBS, they still have some other demands from Museveni’s government. In short, Amelia Kyambadde might have succeeded in lobbying for the re-opening of CBS for the sake of just one constituency - Mawokota; little did she know that she had put other NRM MPs in Buganda in the line of fire. It has also again put Museveni’s negotiating team with Mengo against the wall. Why?

The team scored an own goal and now it is difficult to score at the opponents’ end because Mengo is playing defensively and looking for more goals on the government side. It is from this hide-and-seek game that Museveni’s strategists have opted to concentrate on winning other regions by a bigger margin, in order to balance what is anticipated from Buganda region. But, all things considered, Museveni still has an edge on the Buganda vote.

Why?
What is left of the Buganda block vote is expected in the districts of Masaka, Mpigi, Wakiso, Mukono and a few constituencies in the districts of Rakai, Mityana, Mubende, Luwero, Nakaseke, Nakasongola and Kiboga. In districts like Lyantonde, Gomba, Kiboga, Kibaale, Sembabule and other newly created ones, Museveni will win highly because of the dominance of immigrants who are the majority and have nothing to lose whether or not Mengo exists.

BESIGYE’S NEW STRATEGY TO WIN WESTERN UGANDA:
By virtue of the fact that Besigye comes from Western Uganda, supporters from other regions of the country have always criticised him for not giving Museveni a spirited fight in a region where the two come from. In fact, the western region has remained the life support for the ruling NRM for the last 25 years. For the last two presidential elections, Besigye had always recruited violent youths in townships and they would beat up any one they came across wearing a Museveni T-shirt. But since the campaigns started, it is evident things have changed and his supporters are more composed and calm. They don’t even attack those who attend their rallies in NRM T-shirts. Even after rallies, they go back to their homes peacefully. So allowing NRM supporters to listen to their candidate is a good development and may be the reason why they are getting defectors from NRM during their campaign trail.

DISORDER - THE ROLE OF SLEEPING CABINET:
Being an incumbent, President Museveni has always found it easy to get a winning team by picking the taskforce from the composition of cabinet. But in the recent party primaries, his own supporters made a reshuffle by denying a good number of them their votes. Those who survived, such as Vice President Prof. Gilbert Bukenya, Security Minister Amama Mbabazi, Sam Kutesa, John Nasasira and Hope Mwesigye, have been struggling to blow away the CHOGM scandal report. Other veteran mobilisers like Jim Muhwezi and Capt. Mike Mukula have been demoralised by the way they were treated during the GAVI and Global fund probes. It is therefore evident that Museveni does not have a coordinated cabinet to deliver him victory until after the elections. And any attempt to make a reshuffle might swing some of the NRM bigwigs the wrong way.

Intelligence further confirms that the past Namboole election for the position of party secretary general has been another big thorn in the neck for the ruling NRM party. After beating his older rivals, Mbabazi and his group have tried to show that those who supported Otafire and Bukenya that “Big is Big.” Strategically, the secretary general has shifted from the official party offices on plot 10 Kyaddondo Road to plot 18 Akii Bua Road, where he officially sits as the Minister for Security. Any NRM mobiliser suspected of being from either the Otafire or Bukenya camps may not easily access these premises. The offices at Kyaddondo have been left for the NRM electoral commission to handle complaints from losers in the NRM primaries.

Amidst all this confusion, Museveni is busy consolidating his up-country votes, but it will be an uphill task for NRM as a party to help him win the required percentage if internal problems are not solved. Analysts say Museveni might be tempted to turn to most of his trusted young cadres in the UPDF and other security forces for assistance to put things in order. Though they are constitutionally prohibited from being partisan, there is a big role such cadres play behind the scenes during elections; otherwise a reshuffle after the NRM primaries could have helped Museveni organise a vote-winning cabinet. With the problem of sleeping icons in cabinet, the NRM has to think twice before early celebrations of victory in 2011.

In conclusion, Museveni’s main challenger, Dr. Besigye, has lost twice to the same man though he has always complained of vote rigging. The reality has been that he has never assembled an election team that can be seen as the next government. This is why his big crowds of supporters have never been the actual voters on counting day. This is likely to happen again because of cracks within his IPC. He will only be helped if other candidates perform well enough to deny Museveni the required 51 per cent of the count, so that he faces Museveni alone in the re-run. But with the new momentum the President Museveni has set, it is obvious that when all is said and done, he will get at least 56 per cent of the total vote and the other candidatess will share the rest of the spoils.

Can Besigye break NRM’s hold on Tooro?

In this Daily Monitor analysis of November 24, writer Felix Basiime notes that inspite of the hudles, Dr. Kizza Besigye continues to infiltrate what used to be Museveni's strongholds upcountry and the response has been amazing. 

Inter Party Cooperation (IPC) presidential candidate Dr Kizza Besigye’s 2010 campaign strategy is different: he is penetrating deep into the countryside, seeking out voters where he is speaking to them more intimately at the mini-rallies he is addressing daily.

In Tooro, that style appears to have shaken the authorities a little and according to some could explain why the opposition candidate has found it impossible to get onto any radio talk show here.

Blocked convoysDr Besigye spent four days campaigning in Tooro’s Kyegegwa, Kyenjojo, Kamwenge and Kabarole districts, areas long known to be predominantly NRM. On arrival, last Thursday, he headed for hard-to-reach areas like Hapuyo sub-county and Kyaka travelling over almost impassable roads. That his cars had to be pushed out of the mud many times never seemed to shake his resolve. He has been addressing between nine and 10 rallies (he does not stop for lunch, saying he munches on biscuits and sips water in between stops) every day in this bid to find out whether he can win the voters to his side.

In the 2001 and 2006 campaigns, one hardly found Dr Besigye posters pinned on buildings in the rural areas, or even found people standing on the roadsides waiting for him. This was only for the incumbent, President Museveni.

But these past four days were something of a revelation. People blocked Besigye’s convoy deep in the villages, sang and danced for him. Gave him gifts at rallies, and flashed the ‘V’ symbol without fear; a thing that was never there before in the western region. This time some area councilors have attended Besigye rallies and are at times given the opportunity to talk and welcome him.

At Kakinga, Rwimi in Kabarole District, the area LC2 chairman, Mr Elias Byarugaba, on Monday welcomed Dr Besigye at the rally and said, “I know you have several supporters in my area, so I allow you to campaign but don’t take away all the votes at least reserve some for me.” This new accommodation may provide food for speculation as to how the political mood has changed in the last five years.

Dr Besigye visited health centres, schools, homes, stopping along the way to address the people on their social problems like lack of safe water, bad roads, lack of drugs in hospitals and health centres, poverty, corruption, education. He always ended with an explanation about how he would address these problems if they elected him.

“We thought to start in areas of high intimidation, empower the people with information, become assertive vis-a-vis other areas where we are strong, the NRM chairmen, RDCs, Gisos, some of them are terrorists of the people,” the IPC candidate told journalist on Sunday. “Blocking me from appearing on radio talk shows, shows that the NRM fears our message and do not want it to reach the people, this shows the desperation the incumbent is seeing in our campaign.” 

“In the past two elections there was a lot of intimidation which was effective, people were not empowered, they feared RDCs and Gisos … Secondly, we had less activity by ourselves then, we had no time. We had no structures then, no time to canvass the rural communities, but in the last five years, we have tried to explain the issues to the rural folk, they now have more information than before.”

The opposition leader believes that his party’s support has grown in the last five years as people in the villages get to appreciate what they are all about. Nevertheless, people like Mr Rogers Nkoba of Rwimi in Kabarole District believe “people are now are more interested and more aware.”

The ruling party primary polls which dragged on between August to November, attracting several petitions along the way, may also explain the change in fortunes. There is a lot of hurt from NRM politicians who feel they were unfairly treated by their party. That anger and frustration would as well be channeled to work with their former opponents.

Also, government programmes like NAADs where farmers were supposed to be grouped into demonstration, lead, model and nucleus associations for better targeting never worked as planned.

Dr Besigye has repeatedly pointed out that it was wrong to select few people to benefit from public money, especially in a region where agriculture the main activity.

The people who have attended IPC rallies have spoken about these things even as the memory of President Museveni’s 97 percent sweep of the votes cast in Tooro in 1996, and 87 per cent in 2006 lingers.

Not a single MP from the sub-region is from the opposition. But in the recent local council nominations, the Forum for Democratic Change got hundreds of flag bearers at almost all completive positions save for the district chairmen in Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kamwenge and Kyegegwa. This had never happened before under NRM rule. Next stop Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko.